By America Hernandez
French oil major, TotalEnergies, expects global oil demand to rise until 2040 before declining gradually as energy security concerns and a lack of political coordination slow efforts to cut emissions, it said in its annual energy outlook report on November 4, 2025.
The forecast is an upward revision from last year, reflecting US President Donald Trump’s partial rollback of green subsidies and resumption of licences for liquefied natural gas plants, as well as coal plant installations in Asia and slowing sales of electric vehicles globally.
The report outlines three scenarios: current trends, a moderately ambitious “momentum” scenario, and a “rupture” scenario aligned to the Paris Agreement.
“We can present this rupture scenario, but given the level of political fragmentation, the probability of its success is diminishing, even out of reach, because the international coordination required is not what we see today,” CEO Patrick Pouyanne told a press briefing.
Mr. Pouyanne said that TotalEnergies decided not to forecast the year oil demand will peak because of “conflict between my colleagues about which exact year in the 2030s it will hit and the political attention around this debate”.
The report shows oil demand rising nearly five percent to 108 million barrels per day in 2040 under current trends, driven mainly by India, with global consumption then dropping to 98 million bpd in 2050.
Under Total’s momentum scenario, oil demand would be 79 million bpd in 2050. The Paris-aligned scenario would see consumption fall to 55 million bpd in 2050.
US and China: Old and new energy superpowers
While last year’s report said the US would set the pace of global energy transition, Mr. Pouyanne said that China is now the leader. The US, he said, remained the superpower of conventional oil and gas only.
“China in 10 years has become the clean tech superpower, the new energy supermajor, and it’s spectacular; they must have an 80 percent market share in all the technologies we need tomorrow,” Mr. Pouyanne said.
“It’s a reality. We can cry about it, or we can say it’s good for the planet and ask ourselves how to copy-paste.”
Global natural gas demand is expected to rise by about 10 percent, reaching 4,620 billion cubic metres by 2050, driven mostly by Asian buyers. Electricity demand, meanwhile, is projected to nearly double to 57,140 terawatt hours in 2050, led by the transport and cooling sectors.
Power demand from data centres will account for seven percent of electricity demand in 2050, the company says, though Mr. Pouyanne cautioned that the power needs of artificial intelligence were difficult to predict.
What brent crude trends mean for Tanzania’s growth
Meanwhile, most major institutions forecast Brent crude oil to average between US$73 and US$83 per barrel in 2025, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) trading slightly lower.
The World Bank anticipates a drop from US$80 per barrel in 2024 to US$73 in 2025, while the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects Brent around US$74. Analysts at Goldman Sachs highlight a potential range of US$70 to $85, depending on geopolitical tensions and supply adjustments.
For countries like Tanzania, where fuel imports are a major contributor to inflation, these price shifts are more than abstract numbers – they directly affect the cost of transportation, agricultural inputs, and electricity generation.
A decline toward the lower end of forecasts could ease pressure on households and businesses, while prices trending higher would strain already tight budgets.
Looking ahead: 2026–2030
Oil prices are expected to stabilise over the next decade, with only moderate fluctuations driven by shifts in global supply and demand. According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), Brent crude is projected to average around US$73 per barrel by 2030.
The IEA forecasts a slightly higher range US$75 to US$80 per barrel, influenced by ongoing investments in fossil fuels alongside the accelerating global transition to cleaner energy sources. The World Bank projects Brent at approximately US$73 per barrel, but notes that prices could drop to as low as US$60 per barrel if global fuel demand declines sharply as a result of aggressive climate policies.
A more optimistic scenario presented by LongForecast suggests that Brent could exceed US$100 per barrel by 2030; however, most mainstream analysts consider this outcome unlikely.
For countries like Tanzania, this relative stability offers both opportunities and challenges. Predictable prices could help the government manage fuel subsidies, plan energy infrastructure investments, and protect households from sudden inflation spikes. Conversely, any unexpected surge above US$80–US$100 per barrel could strain the economy, increase the cost of imports, and place additional pressure on vulnerable populations.
MORE INFORMATION
Market Trends: Key Drivers Shaping Oil Prices
Geopolitical Tensions and OPEC+ Policy
- Conflicts in Eastern Europe and the Middle East, combined with sanctions on Russian oil, sustain uncertainty. OPEC+ production decisions remain a central influence on price stability.
Supply Growth and US Shale
- Rising production from the US, Canada, and Brazil could outpace demand, pressuring prices downward—especially if OPEC+ reduces cuts in late 2025. For Tanzania, cheaper global oil could reduce import bills, improve fuel affordability, and free resources for social spending.
Demand Trends and Energy Transition
- While emerging markets like India still push demand higher, advanced economies are expected to see declines. China’s consumption may peak by 2025, and rapid adoption of electric vehicles could cap long-term demand. Lower global demand growth may temper domestic fuel price hikes.
Economic Growth and Trade Policy
- Global trade tensions or slower-than-expected growth could weaken oil demand. Conversely, stronger emerging market growth could support higher prices. Tanzanian exports and imports are sensitive to these swings, affecting foreign exchange reserves and inflation.
Technology and Efficiency
Innovations in drilling, artificial intelligence, and shale extraction are reducing production costs, potentially keeping global prices in check even if demand remains robust. This could help stabilize fuel costs for import-dependent countries.Additional reporting by Business Insider Reporter.
