By Business Insider Reporter
For decades, the Serengeti’s “Great Migration” has been celebrated as one of the world’s greatest wildlife spectacles, with estimates suggesting as many as 1.3 million wildebeest move across the Tanzania–Kenya ecosystem each year.
But new research powered by artificial intelligence paints a more sobering picture: fewer than 600,000 wildebeest may actually be making the journey.
The revelation, based on satellite imagery analysed with deep-learning models, challenges a long-standing figure from the 1970s and raises serious questions for Tanzania, home to the largest share of the Serengeti ecosystem.
Researchers from the University of Oxford used AI models trained on more than 70,000 manually labelled images of wildebeest to scan thousands of square kilometres of the Serengeti-Mara landscape. The results showed far fewer animals than expected – 324,202 and 337,926 wildebeest in August 2022 and between 502,917 and 533,137 in August 2023.
While the numbers don’t necessarily indicate population collapse, they do suggest a potential shift in migration patterns or undercounting in dense habitats. What is clear, however, is that conservation strategies must adapt to this new reality.
What Tanzania must do
The updated data provides a wake-up call for Tanzania, whose tourism sector depends heavily on the Great Migration, a spectacle that generates billions of shillings annually in park fees, hospitality, and travel services.
Experts suggests a number of interventions including modernizing wildlife monitoring
They suggests that Tanzania should invest in AI and satellite-based monitoring systems to complement traditional aerial counts. This will ensure more accurate data to guide policy and reassure investors in the tourism sector.
Trhere is also a need to protect migration corridors by proper management of agricultural expansion, infrastructure projects and land fragmentation are major threats.
Stronger enforcement of land-use planning and community-driven conservation models will be vital to safeguard routes connecting the Serengeti to the Maasai Mara.
The country should also diversify tourism products.
They say that if wildebeest numbers are indeed lower, Tanzania must enhance other attractions – such as cultural tourism, birdwatching, and year-round safari packages – to reduce overreliance on the migration as the sole global drawcard.
There is also a need to strengthen regional collaboration.
Since the migration is a cross-border phenomenon, closer coordination with Kenya on conservation and joint marketing will be essential to protect the ecosystem and sustain the flow of tourists.
The government should also build Local Conservation Capacity. Conservation authorities need long-term partnerships to train Tanzanian scientists, rangers, and data analysts in cutting-edge monitoring technologies.
An urgent call
“The findings don’t mean the Serengeti is in crisis, but they remind us how fragile this ecosystem is,” said one wildlife expert familiar with the study. “Accurate numbers allow us to plan better, protect better, and invest smarter.”
For Tanzania, embracing AI-driven conservation may prove to be not just a scientific advancement, but an economic imperative. With global tourism markets growing ever more competitive, ensuring the long-term survival of the Great Migration – in all its grandeur – will be critical to sustaining one of the country’s most valuable natural assets.
