- Africa loses 2-5% of its GDP each year to climate shocks.
- The cost of climate adaptation in sub-Saharan Africa could reach US$50 billion annually by 2030.
- To rethink climate response globally, we must act earlier, reach the most vulnerable and ensure support is delivered through systems that are ready.
By Lindelwe Lesley Ndlovu
Climate extremes are growing more frequent and intense, testing how the world prepares for and responds to disasters. In Africa, for instance, countries lose 2 to 5% of their GDP each year, with some diverting up to 9% of their budgets to manage climate shocks.
Over the past decade, solutions such as regional risk pooling and pre-arranged disaster financing have emerged to bridge the climate shock funding gap. African Risk Capacity Limited (ARC Ltd), for instance, has helped protect over 160 million people across Africa through parametric insurance designed to provide early financial support.
Yet, even with these tools, the cost of adaptation in sub-Saharan Africa could reach US$50 billion annually by 2030. Moreover, up to 118 million extremely poor people in Africa may still be exposed to droughts, floods and extreme heat unless climate response is reimagined.
Three shifts to deliver real climate resilience
To meet today’s climate risks, we need a mindset change. Based on lessons learnt from Africa, here are three key shifts that could make a lasting difference to the world’s response to climate change.
1. Shift from amount to speed
If climate response is to protect lives and livelihoods, speed matters just as much as funding. Large payouts lose impact if they arrive too late.
When support comes earlier, households maintain food consumption and avoid harmful coping strategies, like selling assets. But in many cases, aid arrives long after damage was done.
Africa’s experience with mechanisms like the ARC Ltd illustrates how parametric insurance can enable early financial support and risk pooling across borders.
Over the past decade, ARC Ltd has enabled over US$240 million in payouts to participating governments and partners. But an independent evaluation found that while these payouts were faster than traditional funding sources, they were still slower than planned.
To make climate response truly effective, we must shift the focus from how much is disbursed to how fast and how well. That means removing bottlenecks in activation, fund release and delivery.
Tools, like real-time climate data, automated triggers and streamlined response protocols, can shorten timelines and make financing count. In disaster response, speed is not a luxury – it’s the difference between prevention and loss.
2. Shift from coverage to inclusion
A faster response is crucial, but we also need to ask: response for whom? Climate risks do not impact all populations equally. Response systems too often fail those who need them most.
Women and girls, for example, are disproportionately affected by climate shocks. According to UNDP, women are 14 times more likely than men to die in disasters. They also face increased unpaid caregiving duties and are more exposed to post-disaster violence. In many countries, they lack financial safety nets and are forced to deplete savings or incur debt after a crisis.
This isn’t just a social justice issue, it’s an economic opportunity. The global women’s insurance market could reach US$1.7 trillion by 2030. Tapping into this potential requires designing solutions with marginalized groups in mind, hiring diverse delivery agents and working with trusted local leaders, especially women, to build trust and access.
Inclusivity also means recognizing how vulnerabilities intersect – whether due to age, disability, displacement or income – and ensuring response systems are accessible and equitable.
In climate response, who is covered matters as much as how fast. Inclusive systems reduce risk and unlock resilience where it’s most needed.
3. Shift from support to local appropriation
Payouts are important, but they are only the start. Real impact depends on how support is received, used and sustained.
Evidence shows that when countries have contingency plans, trained personnel and coordination mechanisms in place, they are better equipped to deliver effective assistance. For example, early warnings followed by strong implementation planning can accelerate aid before households resort to harmful coping strategies.
In contrast, unclear mandates, delayed fund transfers or fragmented procurement can neutralize even the best-designed payouts. That’s why support must go hand-in-hand with capacity building to strengthen institutions, test systems and ensure local ownership.
Africa’s experience has shown that supporting governments to build technical knowledge, customize risk models and establish multi-agency coordination groups can enhance readiness. But, this also requires continuity, particularly for stable institutions that retain knowledge and respond rapidly when needed.
A payout may trigger action. But preparedness – including a country’s ability to appropriate, adapt and deliver that support – determines long-term resilience.
What’s next?
In many contexts, risk models and climate platforms exist, but they’re not trusted or applied due to staffing shortages or a lack of familiarity.
What can help:
- Align risk financing with broader development plans.
- Strengthen legal frameworks and financial systems before disasters strike.
- Improve targeting and inclusion, especially for marginalized groups.
- Expand partnerships with frontline actors to boost local delivery.
- Use data to build trust in early action and refine timing.
Scaling what works – from contingency planning to rapid simulation exercises – can turn early financing into effective action. In many cases, the gap is not in funding, but in readiness.
Time to redefine climate response
As climate extremes escalate, we can no longer afford to treat response as an afterthought. The last decade has proven that when financial tools, data and planning converge, early action is possible and effective.
But, the future of climate response will depend not just on what is paid out, but on how systems evolve to anticipate, adapt and empower. If we want to turn risk into resilience, we need faster support, broader inclusion and stronger local ownership everywhere.
The Author is the Chief Executive Officer, African Risk Capacity (ARC).
